Iran's secret plan for summer offensive to force US out of Iraq

In today’s Guardian (UK), Simon Tisdale, quotes unnamed U.S. Administration officials in Washington and Baghdad stating they have evidence that Iran is planning a ”nationwide, Iranian-orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents to Tehran's Shia militia allies, that Iran hoped would trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat”. They say that this is an attempt by Iran to “increase the propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus's report in September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report to Congress on President George Bush's controversial, six-month security "surge" of 30,000 troop reinforcements]".

While it has been well known that Iranians has always considered al-Qaida and the Taliban to be among their most fervent enemies, US officials, without giving any of the proof, “now say they have firm evidence that Tehran has switched tack as it senses a chance of victory in Iraq. In a parallel development, they say they also have proof that Iran has reversed its previous policy in Afghanistan and is now supporting and supplying the Taliban's campaign against US, British and other Nato forces”.

What seems more likely is that the U.S. Administration, “sensing a chance of” defeat in Iraq and having increasing concern about the Taliban in Afghanistan, are preparing a propaganda barrage against Iran onto the American public and the Congress in preparation for General Petreaus’s report to Congress in September on the controversial “surge” Iraq. Most independent analysts have been predicting that this “surge” cannot succeed, as did I, (see: 10 Feb. 2007. “The Coalition cannot succeed in quelling the violence in Iraq”), and in fact violence throughout the country appears to be further escalating. No matter how positive General Petreaus seeks to portray his report, increasingly, it seems impossible to anticipate the proclamation of “success”. The purpose of this propaganda, of course, would be to put the blame for the failures of the Administrations wars in Iraq and Afghanistan squarely on shoulders of Iran, probably to try to justify military action against that country. Let us pray that the Congress and the American people do not fall for this ploy.

Lloyd Young
lloyduyoung@yahoo.com